As US-backed dictators crumble and fall in the Middle East, heralding a new Arab reawakening, what is the likely impact of all this on the region and elsewhere? And how will these changes affect the jihadi groups that have been active in the region? The Saudi Kingdom is the refuge not just for retired dictators but is also the area that has provided al-Qaeda with most of its early recruits. Arab democracy will become effective only if it deals with the economic problems that confront most of its citizens. Political solutions are no longer enough.
US power today: The global hegemony
Iraq and Afghanistan, Japan and South Korea are still occupied - in different ways - by the US and its allies but imperial overstretch is beginning to set in. Nonetheless US politico-military hegemony, while weakened, is still in place. The EU, Australia/New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea remain loyal satraps with occasional voicing of discontent. How long can this last?
Iraq and Afghanistan, Japan and South Korea are still occupied - in different ways - by the US and its allies but imperial overstretch is beginning to set in. Nonetheless US politico-military hegemony, while weakened, is still in place. The EU, Australia/New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea remain loyal satraps with occasional voicing of discontent. How long can this last?
The rise of China
The emergence of China as the world's economic powerhouse has shifted the centre of the global market eastwards. Its growth rates are the envy of elites everywhere, its commodities circulate even in the tiniest Andean street markets, its leaders are courted by governments strong and weak. These developments have ignited endless discussion on the country and its future. The mainstream media are essentially concerned with the extent to which Beijing is catering to the economic needs of Washington, while think-tankers worry that China will sooner or later mount a systematic challenge to the political wisdom of the West.
Academic debate, meanwhile, usually concentrates on the exact nature and the mechanics of contemporary capitalism in China. The optimists of the intellect argue that its essence is determined by the Chinese Communist Party's continued grip on power, seeing China's pro-market turn as a version of the Bolsheviks' New Economic Policy; in more delirious moments, they argue that China's leaders will use their new economic strength to build a socialism purer than anything previously attempted, based on proper development of the productive forces and not the tinpot communes of the past.
Others, by contrast, hold that a more accurate name for the ruling party would not even require a change of initials-Communist is easily replaced with Capitalist. A third view insists that the Chinese future is simply not foreseeable; it is too soon to predict it with any certainty. Whatever the evolution, what is the likely global impact 30 years from now?
The emergence of China as the world's economic powerhouse has shifted the centre of the global market eastwards. Its growth rates are the envy of elites everywhere, its commodities circulate even in the tiniest Andean street markets, its leaders are courted by governments strong and weak. These developments have ignited endless discussion on the country and its future. The mainstream media are essentially concerned with the extent to which Beijing is catering to the economic needs of Washington, while think-tankers worry that China will sooner or later mount a systematic challenge to the political wisdom of the West.
Academic debate, meanwhile, usually concentrates on the exact nature and the mechanics of contemporary capitalism in China. The optimists of the intellect argue that its essence is determined by the Chinese Communist Party's continued grip on power, seeing China's pro-market turn as a version of the Bolsheviks' New Economic Policy; in more delirious moments, they argue that China's leaders will use their new economic strength to build a socialism purer than anything previously attempted, based on proper development of the productive forces and not the tinpot communes of the past.
Others, by contrast, hold that a more accurate name for the ruling party would not even require a change of initials-Communist is easily replaced with Capitalist. A third view insists that the Chinese future is simply not foreseeable; it is too soon to predict it with any certainty. Whatever the evolution, what is the likely global impact 30 years from now?
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